2013 Oscar Predictions

In my history as a film fan, I have never seen as many Oscar nominated films as I have seen for this year. I have seen every major Hollywood film up for nomination save two, The Impossible (Naomi Watts was nominated for Best Actress) and The Sessions (Helen Hunt nominated for Best Supporting Actress). I’ve even seen all of the nominees for Best Animated Short (and will hopefully get a chance to check out the live action nominees at one of the art house theaters here in Boston before next week), and four of the five nominees for Best Documentary (The Gatekeepers has eluded me). As such, I feel more confident in my analysis and predictions regarding this year’s Academy Awards ceremony. For the purposes of this article, I will be listing the nominees for each category, as well as my predictions for who will win, who should win, and my personal favorite of the year (which may or may not even by nominated), and maybe some comments depending on my thoughts. So here we go (starting from the bottom of the official list and moving up in reverse alphabetical order. Because why not?).

***I’m going to be skipping both Sound Mixing and Sound Editing, because I really have no sense of sound engineering in the film industry, what they are and what makes a well-mixed film, so I will be abstaining. Also skipping Documentary Short (didn’t see them) and Live Action Short (didn’t see them)***

Writing – Original Screenplay

Amour
Django Unchained
Flight
Moonrise Kingdom
Zero Dark Thirty

Should win: Mark Boal for Zero Dark Thirty
Will win: Quentin Tarantino for Django Unchained
Personal favorite: Mark Boal for Zero Dark Thirty

I’m not all that sure on this one. I think the three real options we have here are Amour, Django Unchained and Zero Dark Thirty. My assumption is that the controversies surrounding Zero Dark Thirty are going to sink it despite its bravura screenplay from Mark Boal, so the question becomes whether the Academy decides to throw Quentin Tarantino some bones or not. Django has won at quite a few award shows, mostly for screenplay and Christoph Waltz, so I’m going to assume that it takes it here, but Amour could easily be a spoiler.

Writing – Adapted Screenplay

Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook

Should win: Tony Kushner for Lincoln
Will win: Tony Kushner for Lincoln
Personal favorite: Tony Kushner for Lincoln

To me, this was a much stronger year for original screenplays, thanks to films like Zero Dark Thirty, The Cabin in the Woods, Django Unchained, Amour and Looper, so Adapted Screenplay is a bit of an afterthought. Still, I am entirely okay with lavishing some praise on Tony Kushner, who previously worked with Spielberg on Munich and also wrote Angels in America. Lincoln really is one of the best biopics in recent memory simply for the way it approaches the subject matter. Lincoln is more of a man than a titan, and the film is better for it. It’s not an exciting category, but it is what it is.

Visual Effects

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Life of Pi
Marvel’s The Avengers
Prometheus
Snow White and the Huntsman

Should win: Prometheus
Will win: Life of Pi
Personal favorite: Prometheus

Life of Pi is going to allow the Academy to get by this category without having to fully acknowledge the existence of science fiction and super hero films. Based purely on the visual effects, it is pretty hard to deny Prometheus, but that shouldn’t be too hard for the Academy to ignore. Because there was a pretty tiger!

Short Film – Animated

Adam and Dog
Fresh Guacamole
Head over Heels
Maggie Simpson in ‘The Longest Daycare’
Paperman

Should win: Adam and Dog
Will win: Paperman
Personal favorite: Adam and Dog

The wonder of modern technology allows for all of these shorts to be readily viewed online, which is nice. I have a feeling that Paperman is the safe choice here, and while the short that premiered in front of Wreck-it Ralph is quite charming, I was more taken by the beauty of Adam and Dog, a luscious telling of Adam bonding with a dog in the Garden of Eden. I recommend everyone check out all of the nominees for this one; I found all to be quite good.

Production Design

Anna Karenina
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln

Should win: Anna Karenina
Will win: Life of Pi
Personal favorite: The Cabin in the Woods

I fully expect Life of Pi to sweep the technical awards, because Hollywood managed to make a prestige film that also has enough whiz-bang special effects to get away with winning these awards. This is not to say that the effects (or in this case the production design) of Life of Pi is bad, it’s simply a little overblown. It’s possible that the production design category could go in another direction, likely to Lincoln, but my assumption is that Life of Pi will take it down. Personally, I loved the design work that went into Cabin in the Woods. Obviously the work that went into the last act stands on its own, but I especially liked the way they managed to meticulously recreate the clichéd and eponymous cabin in the woods while at the same time making it clear that this was a meticulous recreation of a cabin in the woods.

Music – Original Song

“Before My Time” (Chasing Ice)
“Everybody Needs a Best Friend” (Ted)
“Pi’s Lullaby” (Life of Pi)
“Skyfall” (Skyfall)
“Suddenly” (Les Miserables)

Should win: “Skyfall”
Will win: “Skyfall”
Personal favorite: “Skyfall”

This one’s easy. Let’s move on.

Music – Original Score

Anna Karenina
Argo
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall

Should win: Dario Marianelli for Anna Karenina
Will win: John Williams for Lincoln
Personal favorite: Alexandre Desplat for Moonrise Kingdom

I’m just assuming here that the Academy is going to be boring and throw another statue at John Williams for another generally uninteresting score, though it is entirely possible that Desplat could win for Argo, with which I would be fine. I personally liked his score for Moonrise Kingdom more, but my guess is they didn’t consider it “original” enough to be nominated (much like Black Swan). Of the nominated, I thoroughly enjoyed Marianelli’s score for Karenina.

Makeup and Hairstyling

Hitchcock
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Miserables

Should win: The Hobbit
Will win: Les Miserables
Personal favorite: The Hobbit

You can’t deny the quality of makeup on a Peter Jackson production. As much as I disliked the story, pacing and plotting of The Hobbit, the makeup is outstanding as always. I do think Les Mis will take it, and I was generally impressed with the work done on the film (especially the different looks given to Valjean and Javert over the years). Hitchcock was a joke, with makeup on the level of a Saturday Night Live skit.

Foreign Language Film

Amour
Kon-Tiki
No
A Royal Affair
War Witch

Will win: Amour
Should win: Amour
Personal favorite: Amour

One of these films was also nominated for Best Picture. Moving on.

Film Editing

Argo
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

Will win: Life of Pi
Should win: Zero Dark Thirty
Personal favorite: Zero Dark Thirty

Another technical category for Life of Pi, though I could see this being a category where Zero Dark Thirty is thrown a bone.

Documentary Feature

5 Broken Cameras
The Gatekeepers
How to Survive a Plague
The Invisible War
Searching for Sugar Man

Will win: Searching for Sugar Man
Should win: The Invisible War
Personal favorite: The Queen of Versailles

Not sure how The Queen of Versailles didn’t get a nomination here; I know the Academy has all sorts of weird and archaic rules about eligibility, and wouldn’t be shocked if it were somehow considered ineligible. Still, the contenders are quite strong, and not particularly uplifting. My guess is that Searching for Sugar Man wins due to being good and relatively safe from a content perspective, but I was much more shaken by How to Survive a Plague and The Invisible War

Best Director

Michael Haneke (Amour)
Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
Ang Lee (Life of Pi)
Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)
David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)

Will win: Spielberg
Should win: Haneke
Personal favorite: Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty)

The big controversial category. Leaving out Bigelow is practically unconscionable here, as her directing is incredible in Zero Dark Thirty, and in my opinion easily above the work of all others nominated. I can’t imagine a way Spielberg doesn’t win this, though Amour is the more impressive achievement of those nominated. It is a bit of a shame that people are pointing to Haneke as the one that doesn’t belong, the one that kept Bigelow and/or Affleck out of the category, when most haven’t even seen Amour. Ang Lee and David O. Russell are the lesser nominees here. A field of Haneke, Bigelow, Affleck, Spielberg and Tarantino would have been much more palatable.

Best Cinematography

Anna Karenina
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall

Will win: Life of Pi
Should win: Skyfall
Personal favorite: The Master

Another technical award for Life of Pi will likely result in another year Roger Deakins somehow doesn’t win an Oscar. Deakins is essentially the Peter O’Toole of cinematographers, and it’s boggling to the mind that he has not won an Oscar at this point. I personally loved the hell out of Mihai Malaimare Jr.’s work on The Master despite general issues I have with the film, and have no doubt that it is the most beautiful film of the year.

Animated Feature Film

Brave
Frankenweenie
ParaNorman
The Pirates! Band of Misfits
Wreck-it Ralph

Will win: Brave
Should win: ParaNorman
Personal favorite: ParaNorman

I love the fact that three of the five films nominated this year are stop-motion films, my personal favorite animation style. Which is going to be disappointing when Brave wins the award for being a prestige Pixar film (i.e. not from the Cars franchise) despite being the weakest film in the category. I know ParaNorman isn’t getting a lot of love (Hotel Transylvania was nominated over it for the Globes, which is an insult of the highest order), but it’s a wonderful film with a great heart and a story that constantly surprises.

Actress – Supporting

Amy Adams (The Master)
Sally Field (Lincoln)
Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
Helen Hunt (The Sessions)
Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook)

Will win: Hathaway
Should win: Hathaway
Personal favorite: Hathaway

Open and shut for Ms. Fantine.

Actor – Supporting

Alan Arkin (Argo)
Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)
Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained)

Will win: Tommy Lee Jones
Should win: Philip Seymour Hoffman
Personal favorite: Jason Clarke (Zero Dark Thirty)

This one could technically go in a few different directions, and I do believe that this will be a pretty strong foreshadowing of the Best Picture race. If Arkin wins, that’ll just about lock things up for Argo winning the overall prize. If Tommy Lee gets the trophy, that could point to Lincoln stemming the tide and winning Best Picture. Should be interesting.

Actress – Lead

Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)
Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
Naomi Watts (The Impossible)

Will win: Lawrence
Should win: Chastain
Personal favorite: Chastain

Jennifer Lawrence has been riding the wave of victories thanks to the Globes and the SAG awards, and looks to be set up for the win this year. Jessica Chastain will have her time in the sun soon enough.

Actor – Lead

Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook)
Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables)
Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)
Denzel Washington (Flight)

Will win: Day-Lewis
Should win: Day-Lewis
Personal favorite: Phoenix? Day-Lewis? I can’t decide

Yes, Daniel Day-Lewis is going to win. Because his Lincoln is incredible, and not at all like what anyone expected. Personally, I can’t tell whether I liked his Lincoln or Joaquin Phoenix’s Fredie Quell. I think I need to see both of them again to finally make a decision. Still, Day-Lewis should win regardless of the fact that he is clearly going to.

Best Picture

Amour
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

Will win: Lincoln
Should win: Zero Dark Thirty
Personal favorite: Zero Dark Thirty

I do think that, after all is said and done, and despite all the mounting momentum for Argo, Lincoln is still going to walk away with the last award come February 24.

Pre-prediction Oscar Musings

It’s been an odd couple of weeks since the Oscar nominations came out, and an odd Oscar season in general, really. This has been one of the more tidal awards seasons, with constantly shifting front-runners and also-rans, as well as a slippery moving goalpost on just what is going to win the damned Best Picture trophy on February 24.

First, we had Argo. It had the luck of being the first film in everyone’s eyes simply by coming out first, but not so soon that it would be forgotten (Hi, Moonrise Kingdom!). Argo was released on October 12, five months ago as of today, and is still in theaters. It was the prohibitive favorite for quite a bit, with the prevailing wisdom that it’s the sort of thrilling political potboiler crowd pleaser that is suspenseful, competently acted and directed, and has that slight jingoistic tinge (without overpowering the average viewer) that makes it stick in the public consciousness.

But then the other films started to come out. Lincoln was born into the world with a slot for a gold statuette, what with its prestige biopic leanings and Steven Spielberg-ness (coupled with the fact that it’s actually pretty good, thanks mostly to Daniel Day Lewis and Tony Kushner and Spielberg finally dialing back his maudlin tendencies that ran roughshod over its opening scenes and then thankfully faded to the background). Lincoln is another political potboiler like Argo, just in a fundamentally different way. We always knew Lincoln would be oppressively Oscar-y. We didn’t know it would also just be good. Silver Linings Playbook continued David O. Russell’s career revitalization as an actors’ director and seemed to be poised to fill the Little Miss Sunshine quirky Best Picture role. Les Miserables and Django Unchained were looming on the horizon, though it was difficult at the time to believe that either film had the chance to take home the big prize.

By the close of 2012, Argo had lost quite a bit of its steam. Lincoln’s prestige voters were coming out in force, and the critics were losing their minds over the quality of Zero Dark Thirty, marveling at Kathryn Bigelow’s late stage career renaissance as an incisive (albeit fictional) representative of modern war in the Middle East. We still all thought Argo was a strong contender, but more of a second tier contender, something akin to the Coens’ True Grit, a strong film that would get a good amount of nominations but probably not win anything major. We all thought Affleck was likely to get a nomination for Best Director, at least partially because Argo is certainly well directed (or at the very least competently directed) and we still can’t quite get over the fact that the guy from Glory Daze, Reindeer Games and Gigli is actually getting good stories on the screen as a director, even if his personal shortcomings as an actor are still prevalent (as a side note, he was actually nominated for Best Actor at the BAFTAs, which is entirely mystifying to me). Hollywood likes Affleck because he’s the embodiment of hack turned artist, a redemptive story not unlike the sort of Oscar bait that actually wins awards (I’m still looking at you, The King’s Speech), but it seemed like a nomination would be enough, at least for this film. The race would be between Bigelow and Spielberg, with Affleck, Ang Lee and likely Tom Hooper rounding out the category.

Then, as we all know, the nominations came out. With no Tom Hooper (this is fine). And no Ben Affleck. And no Kathryn Bigelow, with the Academy opting instead for newcomer Benh Zeitlin of Beasts of the Southern Wild fame, David O. Russell, and Michael Haneke, riding the wave of the surprise juggernaut that is Amour. So that was that. Lincoln was officially going to win everything, Spielberg would take his third Best Director Oscar. Zero Dark Thirty was crushed by its mostly manufactured torture controversy, and it seemed like the Academy wasn’t quite ready to forgive Mr. Affleck for his past actorly transgressions. Films like Beasts of the Southern Wild, Silver Linings Playbook and Amour got some extra exposure, which is nice (I wouldn’t have seen Amour if not for its surprise nominations, and I loved the living hell out of that movie), and this is the first good Spielberg film in a decade, so there are worse Spielberg films to glorify.

But we had a good six weeks between the release of the nominations and the actual ceremony, which would provide for plenty of time grandstanding about the inevitability of Daniel Day Lewis and the travesty of Bigelow and Affleck’s snubs. Of course, the other major part of this is the litany of awards shows happening during this period, from the Golden Globes to the individual American guild awards (Screen Actor’s Guide, Producer’s Guild of America, Director’s Guild of America) to the BAFTAs, among the information dump of individual critic circles’ awards without actual ceremony. And something weird was happening. Argo was winning basically everything. Affleck won Best Director and the film took Best Drama at the Golden Globes. It won Best Cast at the SAG awards (basically the closest you get to Best Film for the SAG awards). Affleck won Best Director at the DGAs. Argo won the Producers of the Year award from the PGA. It also took both awards at the BAFTAs. It won everything. Now, I haven’t exactly taken the time to see when votes were cast for these awards, so it’s not necessarily the case that votes were cast as a backlash against the Academy nominations (they are the big dogs, after all). Sure looks like that from the outside, though.

So here we are. Argo has literally all of the momentum right now, and seems poised to be the first film since Driving Miss Daisy to pick up the Best Picture Oscar without even being nominated for Best Director. Of course, in our current climate of 5 Director nominees versus 5-10 Best Picture nominees, it was bound to happen again sometime, and could conceivably become something closer to the norm. Now, this is not at all a done deal. We could get to next Sunday and Lincoln could still win everything. It’s looking like Spielberg is the only real contender for Best Director regardless of whether Lincoln or Argo takes down the big one. And yes, at the end of the day the Oscars don’t matter nearly as much as the level to which the Academy takes itself seriously. But for those of us who love film, it’s a fun night to watch and see if the professionals in the industry feel the same way you do. It’s also fun to analyze what it all means for the future of the Oscars and the future of film itself. The Oscars are famous for being the stodgy old coots who just stick to safe biopics (A Beautiful Mind, The King’s Speech) or films about how awesome film is (2011 was particularly lousy with reflexive “Isn’t film awesome!?” movies like Hugo and The Artist) while choosing to generally decry science fiction, big blockbusters or animated films regardless of quality (The skipping over of The Dark Knight in 2008 is essentially what led to the expansion of the Best Picture category beyond 5 films). We want to see the Oscars evolve into a more accurate reflection of our cinema climate. We want to see films like Children of Men or Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind or Wall-E get their due, because they are entirely deserving of praise. When that actually happens (if it does at all) will be hard to say, but it is undeniably fun to watch and to predict and to speculate, so I’m just going to keep on keeping on.

An actual prediction article will be coming later in the week. Until then, friends.

Flash Oscar Nominee Reactions

Thoughts by category (at least categories I can comment on) about half an hour after the reveal of the nominees:

Original Screenplay: Moonrise Kingdom‘s only nomination, which is a shame. Personally would have dumped Flight, which had a screenplay that tended to drift toward schmaltz and didn’t quite earn its ending, for something exciting that wouldn’t win, such as Rian Johnson’s Looper script, which would get the Inception treatment (i.e. nerds love that it got nominated and rage when it doesn’t win, even though it never had a chance in the first place) from a couple years ago.

Adapted Screenplay: Nothing particularly surprising here. Though I do believe the Life of Pi screenplay is pretty terrible. Would have liked to see something like The Perks of Being a Wallflower there.

Technical Awards (Visual Effects, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Makeup, Production Design, Costume Design): Lots of Hobbit, lots of Life of Pi, nothing particularly surprising here either. This is always where you see the weird one-off nominations, like Avengers and Prometheus. It is odd that we could now hear the phrase “The Academy Award nominated Mirror Mirror”

Music (Original Song): I’ve listened to “Suddenly” (the Les Miserables song that was clearly written so they could get nominated for this category) a couple times on the soundtrack, and it is SO UNGODLY TERRIBLE (and not even particularly well sung by Mr. Jackman). Here’s hoping Adele can win here, because we don’t want to reinforce bad behavior.

Music (Original Score): I feel like there could be an alternate universe where Alexadre Desplat could have represented more than half of the nominees (he scored Argo, Zero Dark Thirty and Moonrise Kingdom in 2012, among others). I would rather have seen his Moonrise Kingdom score get the nod over Argo, but that’s not the biggest of deals. Just hoping (as always) that John Williams doesn’t win.

Foreign Language Film: Ah, the old case of stacking the deck. Amour was nominated for both Best Foreign Language Film and Best Picture. None of the other films are nominated for Best Picture. It literally has to win this category or the internal logic of the whole nominating process just collapses (I also probably shouldn’t be thinking much about logic when it comes to Oscar nominees, but this is still a slam dunk).

Film Editing: Here’s one of the categories I wouldn’t be upset with a Lincoln win; the editing job during the climactic vote-casting sequence was quite well done. Life of Pi, on the other hand… Django should have gotten the nom here, if only because it’s better. Also, William Goldenberg’s got two shots here, as editor of Argo and co-editor of Zero Dark Thirty. I’d hope he wins for the latter, but I have a feeling this won’t be a good year for middle east war pictures.

Cinematography: You know, you can love or hate The Master. I totally understand both sides. It didn’t particularly move me, but I’ve heard and read enough to see that there were people who were genuinely changed by it. I know it’s getting backlashed into oblivion. But it’s probably the single most beautiful looking film released this year, and yet no nomination for Cinematography. I would bump Anna Karenina or Lincoln, which are nice, but not game changers.

Animated Film: At least the Oscars got it right. The Golden Globes shamefully nominated Rise of the Guardians and Hotel Transylvania over The Pirates! Band of Misfits and ParaNorman. The Oscars fixed that. Interestingly, there are more stop motion films (Frankenweenie, ParaNorman and The Pirates! Band of Misfits) nominated this year than CG films (Brave and Wreck-it Ralph). I do love me some stop motion, so this is pretty great.

Supporting Actress: No surprises. Nothing to see here.

Supporting Actor: Even less surprises. Literally nothing to see here (Alan Arkin? Really? Did he actually act at all in Argo? This is like the one time I’m pissed off DiCaprio wasn’t nominated. Or Sam Jackson for that matter). Yawn.

Best Actress: They went with Old/Young split, as some thought they might (Emmanuelle Riva is the oldest ever nominee, and Quvenzhane Wallis is the youngest), but the real battle is between Chastain and Lawrence. Or at least it should be.

Best Actor: Hugh Jackman really doesn’t deserve this, right? I mean, he’s okay, and his acting’s fine, but his singing voice (and the fact that he was forced to sing “Suddenly,” which I am bringing up again only to have another chance to comment on HOW BAD IT IS) leaves something to be desired. I think it’s awesome that both Bradley Cooper and Joaquin Phoenix were nominated. I think it’s a shame Jamie Foxx and John Hawkes were not nominated. I think they will all enjoy Daniel Day Lewis’ acceptance speech.

Director: What the hell happened here? Weren’t Kathryn Bigelow and Ben Affleck locks? This is the only shocking category. In a year where big name filmmakers like Bigelow, Affleck, PT Anderson and Quentin Tarantino all put out Best Picture nominees, the idea that they would not get nominated is crazy. I still need to see Amour, so I can’t exactly comment on Haneke, but did Benh Zeitlin really deserve a nomination here?

Picture: It seems like Amour bumped Moonrise Kingdom from the field, which is a bit of a shame. What we have here are seven strong films, an eighth I haven’t seen (Amour), and Life of Pi. Which really should be The Master or Moonrise Kingdom. But you can’t win ’em all.

General Thoughts:

• This is the second straight David O. Russell film that yielded four acting nominations (The Fighter gave us Whalberg for Best Actor, Bale for Best Supporting, and Amy Adams and Melissa Leo for Supporting Actress. Bale and Leo won), but the first to hit all four categories (Cooper in Best Actor, Lawrence in Best Actress, De Niro in Supporting Actor and Weaver in Supporting Actress), the first to do so since 1981. It’s funny, because David O. Russell is so famous for being a giant dick to everyone on set, but now he’s becoming The Actors’ Director, with eight noms in two films. So bizarre.
• The Master got some acting noms, and that’s it. I still don’t know what to think about it, but I do feel like it deserved more than three piddling nominations.
• Remember when Argo had all that momentum? This is a case of it being released too early, right? I know it’s still in theaters, but I feel like it would have been able to ride the momentum wave a little better if it had a November or early December release. Of course, it still could have been swallowed up in the Zero Dark Thirty parade, which actually seems to have been legitimately hurt by all the Washington bellyaching over the torture scenes. It’s fascinating.
• I do get it, but there should really be a rule that a foreign language film nominated for Best Picture can’t also get nominated for Best Foreign Language Film. If that happens, just bump it and add the sixth on the list to the official nominations. Just works better that way.
• I have a sneaking suspicion Lincoln is just going to steamroll everyone. Which isn’t the end of the world. It’s a decent enough Spielberg film to make a run like this. It’s just kinda…blah compared to the other films. I won’t be upset (I’ll be upset if Life of Pi wins somehow), but I won’t be particularly happy either. The disappointment comes when it snipes some of the smaller categories (Cinematography and Film Editing, specifically) away from the more deserving Skyfalls and Zero Dark Thirties  of the world.

Actual predictions will come after the Globes this weekend. Anything else would be premature.